August 1, 2019 – For the fourth consecutive month, inventories in the market declined compared to last year. This is due to the combination of improving sales and a decline in new listings.


The market continues to favour the buyer, but a continuation in supply reduction compared to sales is needed to support more balanced conditions.


“We are starting to see reductions in supply across the resale, rental and new-home markets,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“This adjustment in supply to the lower levels of demand will support more balanced conditions. It is starting to support more stability in prices. If this continues, the housing market should be better positioned for recovery as we move into 2020.”


Year-to-date sales activity remains just below last year’s levels and well below longer-term averages. However, the reduction in inventory has caused the months of supply in July to ease to 4.5 months, a significant improvement from the 5.5 months recorded last year.


With less oversupply in the market, prices are showing some signs of stability on a monthly basis. This is causing the rate of price decline to ease on a year-over-year basis. Overall, year-to-date benchmark prices remain over four per cent below last year’s levels.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Sales activity in July was slightly higher than last year’s levels, but it was not enough to offset earlier declines, as year-to-date sales remain just below last year’s levels. Despite overall declines, trends vary significantly by price range. Year-to-date sales for product priced below $500,000 have improved by 11 per cent compared to last year, while sales over $500,000 have declined by nearly 16 per cent.
  • New listings continue to ease for detached product, reducing inventory across most price ranges. This is also starting to result in year-over-year declines in the months of supply for all prices ranges except homes over $1 million.
  • Adjustments in sales and inventories also vary significantly by district. Year-to-date sales have declined across all districts except the North West and South districts. Easing inventories have not occurred across all districts, with year-over-year July inventory gains occurring in both the City Centre and West districts.
  • Buyers’ market conditions persist, with detached benchmark prices at $488,400 in July. This is over three per cent lower than last year’s levels. Price declines range from a high of 5.7 per cent in the South district to a low of 1.4 per cent in the North East district.

Apartment

  • Despite improvement in July, year-to-date sales for apartment condominiums eased by over four per cent and remain well below longer-term averages.
  • Available rental supply and ample selection in the new-home sector have impacted sales in the resale market. However, inventories continue to adjust, reducing the oversupply in this sector.
  • With conditions favouring the buyer, prices continue to edge down. However, year-to-date benchmark price declines are not occurring across all districts, with modest gains occurring in the North East district.

Attached

  • The attached sector is the only sector with recorded growth in year-to-date sales, up nearly four per cent. The affordable nature of this product, relative to detached, has likely supported some of these gains.
  • The number of new listings continues to ease. This is causing inventory declines and reductions in oversupply. Like the other sectors, this segment continues to favour the buyer, preventing any significant changes in prices.
  • Both row and semi-detached prices remain over three per cent lower than last year’s levels and well below historical highs. Attached price declines have been the highest in the City Centre district at over five per cent.
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City of Calgary, July 22, 2019 – A struggling energy sector continues to weigh on the overall economy. Unemployment levels remain elevated and income growth remains weak.


However, Calgary continues to benefit from stable population growth fuelled by international migration and natural increases.


“With current economic conditions, we expect housing demand will remain similar to levels recorded last year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. Supply continues to adjust in the resale market, as well as the new-home and rental markets. Reductions in housing supply are expected to move the resale market toward more balanced conditions and support price stability by the end of the year.


“While supply declines are expected to support price stability by the end of the year, on an annual basis, prices are expected to remain lower than levels recorded last year across all property types,” said Lurie.


Conditions throughout specific price ranges and product types will continue to vary. Growth in the attached and detached markets will continue to be fuelled from the lower end of the market, but apartment activity will continue to face challenges due to the competition from new product and rentals.


Nonetheless, supply declines will help to better position the broader market moving into 2020.


Three things to know about the 2019 mid-year forecast:

• Stable lending rates and the new shared-equity mortgage program may support modest improvements in housing demand in the second half of the year.


• Concerns regarding slowing global growth and impacts on commodity prices may affect consumer confidence and housing sales.


• Slowing economic activity in the province may result in weaker job growth than the current forecast suggests.

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New listings coming onto the market continued to decline in June, which is helping to reduce the oversupply of homes in Calgary.


Year-over-year, new listings saw a decrease of nearly 19 per cent. Sales activity slowed this month compared to last year by six per cent, but the pullback in new listings was enough to cause inventories to fall by 13 per cent compared to last year’s elevated levels.


“So far, the housing market has generally behaved as expected this year. Sales activity remains just below last year’s levels, prices have eased and supply is starting to adjust to the lower level of sales,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“However, it is mostly product priced under $500,000 that is trending towards more balanced conditions.”

While the market still favours the buyer – with 4.3 months of supply – the amount of oversupply has eased and is slowing the decline in prices. As of June, the benchmark price in the city was $425,700, nearly four per cent below last year’s levels and comparable to unadjusted prices recorded last month.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales in June declined by nine per cent compared to last year, causing year-to-date sales to ease by nearly three per cent. The decline in sales was mostly driven by homes priced above $500,000.
  • Detached homes priced under $500,000 have recorded improvements in sales and oversupply reductions. The tightening in the lower end of the market will likely start to support price growth in this sector of the market.
  • Despite city wide year-to-date sales declines, activity improved in both the South and North West districts of the city. Sales did ease across other districts, but in some of the most affordable districts (North East and East) supply-to-demand ratios are improving compared to last year. This is pushing those markets toward more balanced conditions.
  • Despite slower sales activity, the amount of inventory declined by nearly 18 per cent. The reduction in inventories occurred throughout all districts.
  • Prices have remained relatively stable over the past few months, with some modest monthly improvements. However, the oversupply scenario has left prices nearly four per cent below last year’s levels.

Apartment

  • Apartment condominium sales eased in June, causing year-to-date sales to total 1,292 units. This is over seven per cent below last year’s levels. Over the same time frame, new listings eased by over 15 per cent, helping reduce some of the resale inventory in the market.
  • Resale inventory levels have declined, but the months of supply continue to remain elevated at 6.8 months. Combined with elevated inventories in the competing rental and new-home markets, this continues to weigh on resale pricing.
  • June’s benchmark price was $250,200, three per cent below last year’s levels. This is resulting in a total price adjustment of over 17 per cent since 2014.

Attached

  • Unlike other property types, sales activity for attached product continued to improve in June. Year-to-date sales total 1,955 units, nearly three per cent above last year’s levels. Improvements were driven mostly by growth in demand for semi-detached product. Attached sales improved across all districts except the North West and West.
  • New listings have eased compared to last year, which is starting to reduce oversupply in the market. Like all other sectors, the attached market remains oversupplied and this is impacting prices.
  • June’s benchmark prices were $399,700 for semi-detached and $286,300 for row product. Respectively, this represents year-over-year declines of 3.3 and 5.4 per cent.
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June 3, 2019 –CREB Market Report: Sales growth in May was met with a decline in new listings. This combination eased the pressure on inventory levels, which finished the month at 7,467 units, a decline of 12 per cent compared to last year.


Improving sales relative to inventory levels caused the months of supply to ease to just under four months. While still oversupplied, this is an improvement from the five months of supply recorded last May.


Citywide sales in May totalled 1,921 units, 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. However, sales remain 10 per cent below longer-term trends. This sales growth was primarily driven by homes priced under $500,000.


“While sales activity remains low based on historical activity for May, the easing prices have brought some people back to market, while also preventing some others from listing their homes,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“This has started to push the market towards more balanced conditions. If this trend continues, it could limit some of the downward pressure on prices.”


Citywide benchmark prices totalled $423,100 in May. Prices have shown some signs of improvement month-over-month but remain four per cent lower than 2018 levels.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales in May totalled 1,182 units. This is a 12 per cent increase over last year, but still 13 per cent below long-term averages. The improvement in sales was driven primarily by gains in homes priced under $500,000.
  • Sales activity increased across most districts in May. However, year-to-dates sales have only increased in the East, South and North East districts of the city. Citywide sales remain one per cent lower than last year’s levels.
  • New listings in May pulled back significantly from previous year’s levels. Combined with an improvement in sales, this resulted in inventories declining from 4,504 units last May to 3,921 units this month. This is the first time since May 2017 that year-over-year inventories declined.
  • Easing inventory and improving sales caused months of supply to ease to 3.3 months. This is still elevated compared to historical levels, but represents an improvement compared to levels from the past year.
  • Prices have remained relatively stable over the past few months, with some modest monthly improvements. However, the oversupply scenario has left prices four per cent lower than last year and seven per cent lower than 2014 highs.

Apartment

  • The improvement in monthly sales was not enough to offset previous declines. Year-to-date apartment sales sit at 1,030 units. This is seven per cent lower than last year and 28 per cent lower than longer-term averages. Easing sales were met with fewer new listings, reducing the market inventory. This pushed months of supply to just over five months.
  • If the reduction in oversupply continues, it will eventually help limit price declines. However, this market remains oversupplied and prices continue to edge down.
  • May benchmark prices totalled $246,900, 0.6 per cent lower than last month and nearly three per cent lower than last year’s levels. This is resulting in a total price adjustment of over 17 per cent since 2014.

Attached

  • Attached sales activity continue to improve in May. Year-to-date sales improved by two per cent, making this the only sector to record a year-to-date improvement. Improvements occurred throughout most districts of the city, apart from the City Centre, North West and West districts.
  • New listings have also pulled back relative to sales. This is causing inventories to ease compared to last year and months of supply to trend down.
  • Benchmark prices remain five per cent lower than last year’s levels but have seen some modest gains on a month-to-month basis. Despite some signs of improvement, prices remain 10 per cent lower than 2014 highs.
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City of Calgary, May 1, 2019 – There have been no significant changes occurring in sales activity, but the number of new listings coming onto the market continues to ease relative to 2018 levels. 
The decline in new listings was enough to start chipping away at overall inventory levels, which have eased slightly compared to last year.


The slight adjustment in supply levels has helped support further reductions in the months of supply, which was 4.6 months in April. While this level still represents oversupply in our market, it does reflect improvement from the nearly seven months of supply that we saw at the start of the year.


“Demand remains relatively weak in the resale market. However, if supply levels continue to adjust, this could help reduce the amount of oversupply and eventually support some price stability,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


As of April, the total residential benchmark price in Calgary was $415,900. This is slightly higher than last month, but still nearly five per cent lower than last year’s levels.


Citywide sales were 1,547 units in April, two per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-to-date sales remain nearly six per cent lower than last year and are 26 per cent below longer-term averages.


“Sales have been improving mostly in the lower price ranges, causing tighter supply conditions in that segment.  This will likely have a different impact on price trends in the lower price ranges depending on location,” said Lurie.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached

  • Detached sales improved by nearly three per cent in April compared to last year, due to gains in homes priced under $500,000. However, with 930 sales, activity still remain 24 per cent below long-term averages.  Recent gains were also not high enough to offset pullbacks earlier in the year, causing year-to-date sales to fall by over five per cent.
  • Improving sales did not occur across all districts. In April, there was growth in the North East, North West, South and South East districts of the city. Despite some signs of sales improvement, overall sales activity remains well below 10-year averages throughout every region in the city.
  • April detached inventories citywide continue to remain just above levels recorded last year. Months of supply remain relatively unchanged at four months.
  • The amount of oversupply has varied significantly depending on the area of the city. Months of supply has only risen in the City Centre, South and West districts of the city.
  • Despite some of the adjustments occurring in the detached sector, overall April prices remain lower than last year’s levels across all districts. Year to date, the largest year-over-year declines occurred in in the City Centre, North West and South districts.
Apartment
  • Despite the affordability of apartment condominiums, sales activity continues to fall across the city and in most districts. There have been 714 apartment condominium sales so far this year, the lowest level since 2001.
  • The decline in new listings has started to outweigh the sales decline, causing inventories to ease. As of April, resale apartment condominium inventories totaled 1,546 units, 16 per cent lower than inventory levels last April.
  • The easing inventories have also caused the months of supply to decline to just above six months. While this is still a buyers’ market, this trend could help ease the downward pressure on prices if it continues.
  • Apartment condominium prices in April totalled $250,400, comparable to last month, but over two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 17 per cent below 2014 highs.
Attached
  • Attached sales activity improved compared to last year’s levels for the second straight month, almost offsetting the declines occurring in the first two months of the year.  Year-to-date sales were 1,113 units, nearly one per cent below last year’s levels, and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Year-to-date sales have improved in all districts except the City Centre, North West and West.
  • Improved sales and easing listings have helped prevent further inventory gains in this sector and overall months of supply have trended down to five months.
  • Following several months of prices trending down, semi-detached benchmark prices in April rose over the previous month. However, prices remain over five per cent below last year’s levels at $395,300.
  • Row prices were $284,900 in April, over five per cent below last year’s levels.
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